square” or “reverse line movement” games will not show an automatic profit.) This means that the popular strategies to look for “sharp vs. The book typically prefers to keep the line close to the “correct” number and gamble on the result, rather than move to an off-market number and attract a flood of action from advantage players. Aside from rare exceptions like the Super Bowl or 2017’s Mayweather-McGregor fight, public money is generally not enough of a factor to move the odds. (One note before we begin: A popular misconception is that sportsbooks set their lines in order to get an equal amount of money on each side. Let’s take a closer look at where the line comes from and how it develops from opening to closing. There are even plenty of pros who make a living trading games where they have no opinion whatsoever they just play line moves. Timing the market is one of the most important factors that separates professional bettors from amateurs: in fact, pros understand that when you choose to bet can be as important as what you choose to bet. Unlike pari-mutuel horse racing, where the payout on your ticket can shift wildly before post time, sports bets are locked in at a fixed price even if the odds take a big turn - like when the Broncos had to play the Saints without a quarterback last season.
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